HONG KONG — Major Asian airlines are experiencing a surge in demand on European routes as travelers increasingly avoid disrupted Middle Eastern hubs. Analysts suggest that this trend may continue even after the Iran conflict comes to an end.

Last week, Cathay Pacific Airways, Singapore Airlines, Korean Air Lines, and Qantas Airways reported strong performances on their European routes in March, despite facing a doubling of jet fuel prices.

"We have ... increased flights and capacity to Europe in March and April to meet the rising market demand as passengers seek alternative routing," stated Cathay’s Chief Customer and Commercial Officer, Lavinia Lau, on April 17.

She noted that robust demand is expected to persist throughout April, driven by Easter travel and a rise in long-haul bookings that transit through Hong Kong.

Singapore Airlines reported that seat occupancy on its European flights soared to 93.5 percent in March, up from 79.7 percent the previous year. This increase is partially attributed to redirected traffic to Europe as capacity through Middle Eastern hubs diminished.

This was the most significant gain recorded for any region.

Challenges for Gulf Carriers

Prior to the conflict, Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways collectively accounted for roughly one-third of passenger traffic between Europe and Asia, carrying more than half of all passengers traveling from Europe to Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

The major Gulf carriers are gradually restoring their capacity, with all three reaching at least 60 percent of their pre-conflict flight numbers, as indicated by Flightradar24 data.

However, they face additional challenges, such as Australia advising its citizens against traveling to or even changing planes in the Gulf, which means they are not covered by travel insurance.

This situation has led customers to pay a premium for flights that avoid the Gulf, as shown by data from Google Travel.

For economy-class round-trip tickets from Sydney to London leaving next Saturday, Etihad via Abu Dhabi is the cheapest option at A$1,861 (S$1,694). For those avoiding the Middle East, the least expensive one-stop options are United Airlines at A$3,144 via San Francisco and Thai Airways at A$3,901 via Bangkok.

Bank of America analysts noted in a recent report that "tight pricing and market share gains on Asia-Europe routes could last for six to twelve months even after the conflict ends due to forward booking lags and traveler risk aversion."

Alternative Hubs Emerging

Korean Air reported a strong performance in Europe during its first-quarter estimated results, with operating income rising by 47.3 percent to 517 billion won (S$442.8 million).

The Seoul-based airline attributed this growth to "increased demand between Europe and Asia due to the Middle East war," with European passenger revenue climbing 18 percent compared to the previous year.

Looking ahead, the airline anticipates "strong transit demand" benefiting from reduced market supply from Middle Eastern carriers.

Qantas has adjusted its operations to capitalize on this shift, reallocating capacity from U.S. and domestic routes to expand flights to Paris and Rome.

"Qantas continues to witness strong demand for international travel to Europe as customers explore alternative routes," the airline announced.

Air traffic control manager Airservices Australia reported a 77 percent year-on-year decline in Australia-Middle East traffic during March, as services were rerouted through other cities.

"Asian gateways such as Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Seoul are capturing much of this displaced demand and may emerge as alternative hubs and travel destinations," Airservices stated.